Can Australian agrifood capture a $200 billion opportunity by 2030?
That was the question at the heart of the UWA Institute of Agriculture’s 20th annual Industry Forum, held at the University Club of Western Australia on 8 July 2026 and attended by around 250 people.
The forum brought together four industry leaders:
- Elders CEO Mark Allison
- Wilson International Trade Director Peter Wilson
- Rabo Research General Manager Stefan Vogel
- Craig Mostyn Group CEO Wayne Crofts.
Drought as an event was not spoken of directly, but the speakers’ points describe how a farm copes when it arrives.
Mark Allison opened with an image familiar to those working in drought resilience : a frog in water slowly brought to the boil never jumps out, because no single moment feels dangerous enough to act on.
Key Insights
A slow burn, not a sudden shock
Mark Allison’s point was about timing. Big shocks draw attention, he said, while consistent, low-grade pressures do not, and agriculture is celebrated in political speeches while producers carry extra burdens with little support. ABARES agrees: the most effective drought response is investment made before a drought, not relief during one. Climate conditions since 2000 have cut average WA farm profit by 25.8 per cent, or $58,300 per farm, the largest loss of any state (Hughes, Galeano and Hatfield Dodds, 2019). Productivity has also stalled since 1997, unlike the USA, Canada and Brazil (Australian Farm Institute, 2015).
In building value, we grow
Peter Wilson argued that Australia needs more than new demand: value-adding within existing systems can grow markets from the inside rather than relying only on export volume. ABARES lists diversification, spreading activity across crops, livestock or markets, as one of the clearest ways farmers cut climate and price exposure (Hughes, Galeano and Hatfield Dodds, 2019).
Fuel and food compete for the same crop
Stefan Vogel named productivity, value and governance, including succession planning, as the enablers Australia needs. His example was canola: much of what is exported to Europe becomes biodiesel, tying the market to European policy rather than food demand. Rabo Research agrees, finding demand for renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel has opened a “rare strategic window” for canola (Grain Central, 2026). Succession planning is now formally part of national drought policy, delivered through the Future Drought Fund’s Farm Business Resilience Program.
Feeding more people with less room for error
Wayne Crofts framed the opportunity in demand terms: rising population and income mean rising calorie demand, and countries unable to keep pace become more import-reliant. Projections from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) agree, expecting global farm production to grow around 14 per cent over the next decade, with a fifth of all calories now crossing international borders (OECD and FAO, 2025). These competitive levers, cost, automation, supply chains, labour, energy and regulation, all depend on what ABARES points to: farms manage risk by holding equity and off-farm income, which requires profitability (Hughes, Galeano and Hatfield Dodds, 2019).
Reflections
Throughout the discussions, the four speakers did not reference drought resilience directly, but policy timing, market concentration, cost structure and succession planning are resilience factors when a dry year arrives. The $200 billion opportunity as the premise for the forum and the sector’s drought exposure are the same story. Read that way, what it calls for is consistence: acting before the crisis rather than after it, building in alternatives and value, cutting waste, and planning with enough efficiency and profitability to be ready before conditions turn severe.
Implications for agriculture
For people in drought and those impacted by climate variability, the takeaway is that resilience planning needs to be about more than seasonal risk; the conversation fits alongside many other aspects of resilience. In Western Australia, this work is already being delivered through the Future Drought Fund’s Drought Resilience Adoption and Innovation Hubs and the Farm Business Resilience Program (Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, 2025) as well as many of the other Future Drought Fund and Natural Heritage Trust programs.
Closing thought
A memorable practical message was Mark Allison’s point about pressures that build without being noticed. Capturing the opportunity and building drought resilience depend on the same groundwork: profitability, diversification, succession planning and policy that acts before conditions turn severe. Everyone in agriculture can be a part of that groundwork.
Further reading and links
Australian Farm Institute (2015) Why Has Australian Agriculture Productivity Growth Stalled? Sydney: Australian Farm Institute. Available at: https://www.farminstitute.org.au/why-has-australian-agriculture-productivity-growth-stalled/ (Accessed: 22 July 2026).
Grain Central (2026) Canola Poised for Greater Role in Local Biofuel Future: Rabo. 8 April. Available at: https://www.graincentral.com/markets/canola-poised-for-greater-role-in-local-biofuel-future-rabo/ (Accessed: 22 July 2026).
Hughes, N., Galeano, D. and Hatfield Dodds, S. (2019) The Effects of Drought and Climate Variability on Australian Farms. Canberra: ABARES. Available at: https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/products/insights/effects-of-drought-and-climate-variability-on-Australian-farms (Accessed: 22 July 2026).
OECD and FAO (2025) OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034. Paris: OECD Publishing / Rome: FAO. Available at: https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-fao-agricultural-outlook-2025-2034_601276cd-en.html (Accessed: 22 July 2026).
Photos supplied by The University of Western Australia.